REKTEMBER
Round 1
Round One - *bing bing bing ππ
LFG, September aka βRektemberβ the 9th month of this bs is bull hunting season, red month so bearish weβd make a commie blush so id expect nothing more than red candles in a wake of dead bulls - i mean look at this chart. Theres a 3 green months out of 12 lol, no chance of double digits green unless hayes infinite bullszn liquidity taps start opening early.
BTC returns -
So in the sea of red, its no surprise that week 1 of september is started with a fresh round of dumping starting early on Sunday.
So with the context that bears are ghey π and bulls are retarded, theres nothing but crab life down and tardfi and gold ATHs for the foreseeable future - crypto bros are missing out on all the fun doomscrolling until conditions change. So lets dig into some numbers and build a view for the week.
Macro
This week we have several key economic indicators and event trades to hyper gamble on:
US Labor Market Data: big ticket main event is the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment rate for August, expected to drop on Friday. This is the litmus test regarding market health and by extension the US economy, influencing dollar strength - strong dollar means rip bitcoin.
Manufacturing and Services PMI: Next up both China's Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMI, along with the US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, are scheduled for this week. These indices give insights into economic activity in two of the world's largest economies, potentially affecting global investor sentiment.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision: On Wednesday, the Bank of βsorry brosβ will make their interest rate decision, odds are on big cut If the poll results are correct, the BoC will deliver 75 bps of rate cuts before the Fed even starts. BULLISH DOLLAR, bad bitcoin again.
Global PMI Data: Aside from the US and China, europoors like Switzerland are also releasing their manufacturing PMI, and there's the Swiss Q2 GDP data - but nobody cares about europe, so not worth worrying about.
The general punter sentiment seems to lean towards cautious observation βaka no balls to predict up or down as usualβ, as they flip flop between good and bad for engagement maxxing. Id say its election season anon, bad news is good news and if NFP is flat or down, expect that september rate cut to look like 75bps+
But to be sure I have all my basis covered I asked grok to scan twitter socials - heres what it said:
There's a mixed bag of expectations, but the overarching theme is one of anticipation for how these economic indicators might sway the Fed's future decisions on interest rates. Given recent discussions, there's little expectation for aggressive rate cuts, suggesting a market bracing for a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment.
The absence of US markets on Monday due to a holiday might lead to lower liquidity at the week's start, potentially causing a quieter trading environment or exaggerated moves on lower volume.
Analysts and traders on platforms like X are also watching sectors like FMCG, chemicals, housing finance, and auto ancillary in various markets, suggesting a broader interest beyond just the macro figures, possibly looking for sectors that might outperform or underperform based on the economic data released. β - i didnt read this, so if you did - have a cookie.
In the words of barry, βits gonna be a big weekβ - im long as balls and bear posting for a bottom so pray for my bags.
Crypto twitter sentiment
While everyones crying about ETH L2s, and fighting about what constitutes a green day theres no bull left standing on dry land. Its truly over unless you believe all the open interest is just shorts opening (which it almost never is).
Bullish Copium: There's an underlying hope or expectation for a recovery or a significant pump, especially noted by those looking at historical deviations this cycle or anticipating market reactions to broader economic events. Hope is never a good strategy, unless you have scuba gear
Bearish Points: Many are cautious, citing technical indicators like bearish engulfing patterns, or historical September performances, suggesting that a downturn could still be in play. Which makes sense if we look at the data
General Consensus: The sentiment leans slightly more towards bearish or at least cautious, with significant interest in strategic positioning for either outcome. There's a sense of anticipation for movement, whether it's a recovery or further decline, with many traders prepared for volatility.
My take is we are all doomed - its truly over, 57k will get swept and Iβd be surprised if we close above 61k this week. Nobody cares about ethihrum, solana is te future of france
Price action
Last week was brutal. Corn attempt to recovery only to have a rapid repricing down, both upside and downside were rejected, and we returned to crab down again. Just look at this trend... cries in negative pnl
Anyone trading this shlop belongs in a mental asylum, 58 support is not safe this week. And 64k remains the lower high on HTF.
Looking into this week, the technical analysts are suggesting cautious optimism - bruh, we have been down trending with major rejection at 64k. There's traders suggesting Bitcoin possibly test higher liquidity areas by the most cracked out analysts, with targets around the $68k-$72k range, imo there's still significant liquidity below current prices that could attract a downturn to 56-57k.
The market sentiment, based on technical indicators like moving averages and oscillators from broader market analyses, leans towards a neutral to slightly bearish outlook. However, caution is advised due to mixed signals like the Fear & Greed Index indicating ' General Fear', which often precedes a market bottom or a bounce (these things are generally bad bellwethers).
As usual a technical standpoint, traders are watching for daily candle closures above certain resistance levels for confirmation of trends, with particular interest in whether Bitcoin can maintain above key resistance levels like $62k. The presence of a strong order block and the pivot point around the 21-week EMA provide critical points for analysis if you are so inclined.
Im more likely to think this week is early test of weekly lows, general positioning bearish continuation with a small chance of a bullish rejection at support. Personally I think revisiting 61k might signal a bullish reversal, with higher targets - but until then down only. And I have the TA trends to back it up here:
In summary long if you bullieve, but remember you are fighting a trend and seasonality.
Funding rates
Something needs to be said about funding rates, its a free money trade. Long ETF short CME for the tradfi bros, and for us normies long spot short perp, historically this trade outperforms any hedge fund. But its incredibly crowded now, especially with ethena and ETF launch so the signal is diminished. I still think its important, so lets look at where we are.
Binance and Bybit funding rates have been slightly positive at times, which is the norm. Generally things are looking very flat with no signal to work off. Something that is throwing me off is the positive uptick while crabbing sideways, generally this indicates bulls getting longer at support with spot still offloading. This usually sets up for a flush or βdeviation mateyβ
Thankfully open interest is not interest-ing. Things are flat, moving in line with current prices. Hardly a peep, which suggests that perp positioning is dead and the only players left are the eternal bulls.
I expect another flush to 28bn, and funding rates to chill around 5% annualised as we head lower this week.
Liquidity
Think of liquidity as a magnet, if theres an opportunity to move the price to a liquidation cluster - it will. These heatmaps are generally a meme but they do offer some guidance.
As I said before, 57k isnt safe, theres 80% chance we sweep this cluster. Look for fills here, and short chasing for a quick scalp this week. I wouldnt expect a big bounce after, but if you want a long - grab it around the lows of 57 somethings and close for 58. Shorting now, is too late for the payout.
Theres not a lot working for bulls this week, and with price generally trending lower theres a high chance of a flush and maybe a turn around mid week.
As for orderbook liquidity, some of you love these things. So if you a bull, dont look at 44k - but generally market looks healthy, those asks around 57 look real enough so id expect them to get filled. From there - chopsolidation is back on the menu with BTC locked in 57-62k range
Options Market
For those who dont know what this is these are the four elements of life, not water fire earth and wind. These are the greeks they control everything, and for the case of Bitcoin they are becoming increasingly important as they represent a greater size of OI in crypto - here we have this weeks expiration
Iβll go through all 4 once, so write it down. Delta measures the rate of change of the option's price with respect to changes in the underlying asset's price in tis case bitcoin. It ranges from -1 to 1, as price moves the option gets more or less expensive.
This weeks magic number is $58,000, Delta spikes sharply upwards, indicating that the option's price is highly sensitive to price changes around this level so id expect it to act like a pivot point.
Next up gamma, its how acceleration is to velocity. You can go fast forever, but if you add a bit of gas the fast becomes faster. Same with gamma, this is the roids of options
This weeks gamma is highest around the BTC price of 57-59k, indicating that delta is most sensitive to price changes around this level. This peak suggests that small movements in BTCβs price near $58,000 could cause large changes in Delta, making the option more volatile.
As BTC moves away from $58,000, Gamma decreases, indicating that Delta becomes more stable and the need for hedging becomes less aparent.
Theta is the nerd greek, its the oxidation of life and anyone who trades theta is either baller rich or a wannabe quant with wife that has a boyfriend.
This week theta is negative across the board, as usual.
As we move up, theta becomes less relevant which means theta sellers are unhappy. Short theta is 57500 for max money, so expect sideways around here and faster repricings lower or higher as these nerds cover there hedged positions
Ever heard of vol crush? K, its when your option stays valuable because BTC is skitz as a toddler on meth. MMs dont know where its going, so high vol means your option is valuable even tho its far from strike.
Trend is our friend here, 59keks is max βwho knowsβ price. Selling vol is profitable business, so id expect more discretionary positioning away from the tipping point
but but hype1on what about ... fuck you. Lets look at max pain
Max pain for the week is 60k, I doubt we trade to 60 as OI on this week is tiny. Higher chance the market moves closer to 58 or 57 as we move to the end of the month.
The combination of a positive Delta, significant Gamma, and high Vega around 57-58k suggests that options dealers expect upward movement or significant volatility in this range. However, Theta indicates that without a move soon, the options could lose value quickly, which might dampen the bullish outlook unless a strong move happens soon.
What to do this week:
If you believe in a breakout above $58,000: Consider getting long positioning in BTC, anticipating that the positive Delta and high Gamma will lead to rapid gains if BTC breaks above this level. Buy the vol
If you expect BTC to stay below $58,000: Consider selling options (like covered calls) to benefit from the rapid Theta decay if BTC does not move much. Theta decay will work in your favor, reducing the premium of the options youβve sold. Hedging with shorts: Buy puts or get short positioning if you anticipate a bearish move below $57,000, where the Delta spike suggests higher sensitivity to downward movement.
You might hate it but this 57-58k range is important. The indicators point to potential volatility, with a slight bias towards bullishness if BTC can break through 58-59k. It would align with our trend we have seen earlier.
Hyper1ons thoughts
With all that said, heres what I am hoping for in round 1. NFP comes in within expectations, we dip into 56-57k zone, and we rebound into 62k.
If you got this far, id really appreciate a share - i enjoyed writing this, and id like to do more. Sometimes being a small account feels like I am screaming into the void, so send over a little dopamine hit my way and I can keep doing this. I'd like to offer some no BS perspective for the week ahead. I'll be concise and give you my honest opinion with no fear of being wrong.
Thanks to
@coinglass_com for the data, most legit data source for all things crypto.